![]() They reported " If we are to believe a reference included in a 2004 Chinese Foreign Ministry fact sheet on nuclear weapons, the arsenal is smaller than previously thought. Kristensen reported "Newly available information on the Chinese nuclear arsenal requires us to reassess our previous estimate of Beijing's stockpile (see "Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2003," November/December 2003 Bulletin). In 1994 the Natural Resources Defense Council estimated that China had about 450 nuclear weapons. In the late 1980s it was generally held that China was the world's third-largest nuclear power, possessing a small but credible nuclear deterrent force of 225 to 300 nuclear weapons. Other estimates of the country's production capacities suggested that by the end of 1970 China had fabricated around 200 nuclear weapons, a number which could have increased to 875 by 1980. Based on their production capability, DIA assessed in 1972 that the Chinese could have as many as 120 thermonuclear warheads and 260 fission nuclear weapons in their stockpile. All of these new facilities would give the PRC the capability of becoming the third largest nuclear power in the world. Also, there was a possible new weapons fabrication facility located at Tzutung. There was an additional reactor for production of plutonium at Kuangyuan and additional weapons grade material could enter the stockpile by 1974-75. This new facility was predicted to begin partial production in late 1972 with full operation in late 1974. ![]() This included a gaseous diffusion plant at Chinkouho which was estimated to be able to produce more U-235 then the original plant at Lanchou. “China’s nuclear forces will significantly evolve over the next decade as it modernizes, diversifies, and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms,” it said.īetween January 1971 and late 1972 a second set of new nuclear facilities was identified in the West. land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200 in the next five years,” the report said. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad Sbragia said, "Just looking at the number of warheads by itself is not the entire picture or doesn't paint a holistic understanding of where the Chinese are." He said China had developed submarine and air-launched nuclear missiles, and is adding silo-based underground intercontinental ballistic missiles. ![]() The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military trends included for the first time an estimate of the country's nuclear arsenal. The US Defense Department said 01 September 2020 China's stockpile of nuclear warheads, currently estimated in the low 200s, is projected to at least double over the next decade. Under this calculuation, about 200 warheads would remain to be divided among shorter range missiles, theater bombs, and other tactical delivery systems. Although warhead loadings on MIRVed missile are uncertain, plausible loadouts suggest 335 warheads on ICBMs and 288 warheads on SLBMs, for a total of a bit over 600 warheads. This would be enough to make 830 ± 210 nuclear weapons or more, assuming 3.5 ± 0.5 kg WGPu per device." If in fact all the plutonium has been weaponized, China would have a bit more than 800 warheads, and possibly as many as 1,000 warheads. China has an estimated 2.9 ± 0.6 t of stockpiled WGPu. Ĭochran and Sokolski reported that China could have "roughly 480 weapons we believe China could make from the weapon-grade plutonium (WGPu) we believe it has stockpiled but not yet weaponized. Sokolski reported in March 2021 that China had "approximately 350 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 272 are for delivery by more than 240 operational land-based ballistic missiles, 48 sea-based ballistic missiles, and 20 nuclear gravity bombs assigned to bombers." These calculations assume very little MIRVings on the part of land based missiles, and substantially understate the number of SLBMs deployed at that time. ![]() ![]() By 2021 China was believed to have 350 nuclear weapons based on unclassified estimates. ![]()
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